Similar claims are made this year that Romney’s price (35% at present) are inflated relative to his actual chances (Nate Silver’s 538 shows Romney’s chances to be 15% at present). It’s impossible to determine without the insight of Intrade itself whether this is a series of wide-eyed Romney optimists or a concerted effort to raise Romney’s prices. From experience and looking at the offers/bids, it’s probably the former. There seems a general sense amongst conservatives, one of which resides in my own family, that Romney cannot possibly lose. But again, what is a potential downside for Intrade’s predictive abilities is a boon to traders who can take full advantage of what they perceive to be bad pricing. Whether it is indeed bad pricing or not will be determined on election day.