"Using the adoption rate of another consumer technology – television – as a guide, it could be slow going. Getting the first 63% of households to buy a TV set took about eight years, from 1947 to 1955, according to the Consumer Electronics Association. That's about the same amount of time it took the Internet to get to its current 57% household penetration from 1994, when it was in its infancy, says Forrester Research.
"The curves are remarkably similar and the TV curve is quite usefully predictive," says Steve Jones, senior research fellow at the Pew Internet and American Life project.
If Mr. Jones and others are right, Internet penetration is about to hit a speed bump: It took the TV industry about 30 more years after 1955 to reach the current 98% penetration rate among U.S. households."

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