In sum, oil prices were steadily declining throughout 1990 up to about a month before the invasion of Kuwait (Figure 5). This was a period of excess stocks, rather slack demand, and over-capacity among the major producers. There was little upward pressure on prices until signs of Iraq's belligerence became more and more apparent in July. As noted above, this was also a period of upward sloping futures curves, indicating no risk premium was associated with concerns over future availabilities of oil. In other words, we can safely attribute most of the price increases from mid-July 1990 up to January 17 of 1991 as strictly associated with military-related events in Kuwait. In retrospect, it is also safe to say that the oil markets were good interpreters of military events as they pertained to future availabilities of oil.